Is the UK softening its stance on immigration?

By Rebecca Tester, immigration partner.

The political debate over immigration in the UK is entering an interesting phase. Policy changes introduced by the previous government in early 2024, along with further changes under the current Labour government have significantly reduced net migration into the UK, which peaked at 944,000 in the year to March 2023, but had subsequently fallen to 171,000 by December 2025. We are expecting figures for 2026 to be even lower.  Having already achieved such a substantial reduction, the key question now is how to support a growth agenda whilst continuing the hard-line on immigration, or, have immigration reforms gone too far?

A balanced immigration system should support both public confidence and economic competitiveness. The challenge for policymakers now is ensuring the UK has the workforce and skills needed to support growth while maintaining control of the system.

The economic cost of lower migration

While lower migration may ease pressure in some areas, there are growing concerns about the wider economic impact. Many industries are already facing significant labour shortages, and a sustained reduction in migration risks constraining growth, increasing costs for employers, and putting additional strain on sectors such as health and social care, construction, and hospitality.

A Shift Towards Higher-Skilled Migration

The current government has deliberately shifted the system towards higher-skilled migration, while closing overseas recruitment in social care and raising the skills and salary requirements for Skilled Workers. International student numbers have also fallen, and the Graduate visa, currently a 2-year visa, is being reduced to 18 months from 2027.

But on the other hand, the UK also needs to stimulate economic growth.  The UK needs engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs, doctors, technology specialists and highly productive international graduates.

Earned Settlement: A sign of what comes next?

The upcoming earned settlement reforms are therefore vitally important in terms of understanding the tone and direction of travel for immigration policy going forward. The Government has proposed moving the standard qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain from five to ten years, with reductions for economic contribution, public service, integration, amongst other factors. High earners, for example, could potentially reduce their qualifying residence period to as little as 3 years. The earned settlement consultation closed in February 2026 after more than 200,000 responses, and the Government is still analysing these responses and appears to be considering transitional arrangements, having previously confirmed that any changes to permanent settlement would be retrospective.

What the party conferences revealed

Labour’s recent party conference suggested that ministers understand the need for balance. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood defended the principle that settlement should be earned, but explicitly acknowledged concerns about fairness to people who have already arrived in the UK under the current rules. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham went considerably further on the UK’s relationship with Europe, arguing that Brexit had weakened both economic performance and immigration control and that the UK should consider the full range of future options, including the single market, customs union and, potentially, re-joining the EU.

Kemi Badenoch’s speech at the Conservative conference by contrast, only mentioned immigration briefly, but her speech contained a renewed emphasis on economic growth.  Badenoch has sought to rebuild the Conservatives’ relationship with business, while acknowledging past failures around both immigration and Brexit.

From reducing numbers to maximising value

The direction of travel is therefore more interesting than the headline rhetoric. The UK is not becoming “soft” on immigration; it may be becoming more selective. The political consensus is moving towards lower overall migration, but there is an emerging distinction between uncontrolled or low-skilled migration and the international talent the UK actively needs.

That distinction matters. If net migration is already dramatically below the Boris-era peak, the next stage should be less about chasing ever-lower numbers and more about maximising the economic value of those who come here. For a country trying to raise productivity, investment and innovation, the best international students and skilled workers are not a problem to be solved. They are potentially part of the growth strategy.

Rebecca Tester is an immigration partner at Constantine Law